A CITIZEN'S BLOG

And here is the one you've all been waiting for ...

If the NL East isn’t the most competitive division in baseball in 2005, then I will be very surprised. The Marlins, the Braves, the Phillies and the Mets could all finish 1 through 4. The only team I am certain will be in the cellar is the Nationals.

Proj. Standings:
Florida Marlins
Philadelphia Phillies
Atlanta Braves
New York Mets
Washington Nationals

I like the Marlins to win the division because they have strong pitching (fifth best NL in 2004), good defense (fourth best Defense Efficiency Ratio in ’04) and thanks to their acquisition of Carlos Delgado, a terrific bat. I like these guys to win because I think they have the best balance of all of the NL East teams. They aren’t a jauggernaut, but they are significantly better than the Braves and the rest of the division. The acquisition of Delgado (Bill James proj.: .390 OBP, .565 slugging percentage, 35 home runs, 110 Runs Created), the last significant free agent signing of 2005, will prove to be the most important for the season. The Marlins improved an offense that ranked in the middle of the NL in terms of runs scored, ISO, GPA, OBP and all of those stats we all follow … I’d dearly love to put the Phillies first, but I can’t. This is a competitive division and I don’t think the Phillies closed many gaps in 2005. I think this team will be better than the ’04 version, but the Mets, Marlins and Braves made tremendous changes to their organizations. They all improved in some respects. I just don’t think the Phillies did quite the same, especially compared with the Marlins. They are strong offensively (best offensive team in the division still), terrific defensively (only team nearly as good: the Marlins) and they have a good pitching staff. But taken as a whole, I think they are a few steps behind our archnemesis in Miami … I don’t think the Braves will win the division in 2005. Yeah, the reign of the bland champions comes to an end. Sure, they upgraded their pitching staff with Tim Hudson, but that’s it. This team has been declining offensively for some time and losing J.D. Drew (Runs Created 2004: 122) is going to cripple their chances on the pennant. The Braves are unbalanced: terrific pitching, decent fielding, and a lack of firepower. I think Hudson will pitch well and is the favorite to win the NL Cy Young, but these guys need to retool their lineup for 2006. They need bats … Could the Mets win the division? Sure, but I don’t see that happening. I know Jason at Berks Phillies Fans disagrees with me, but these guys lag behind the Phillies, Marlins and Braves. So they got Pedro and Beltran. Big deal. They still have a lot of holes. I don’t care for their rotation much (after Glavine and Pedro, both of whom are in decline) and they don’t have much offensive firepower. Defensively they play well, but this team is too weak. Had they signed Delgado, I might feel better about their chances, but they are just short of being good. I also have reservations about Pedro: his numbers have been declining for years. Will the pressure of playing in Queens finally catch up to him? And what in the heck were the Mets thinking, tossing money at Kris Benson? Lots of holes. Fourth … I’m glad to see baseball move out of Montreal and accept reality. I’m thrilled to see a team in our nation’s capitol for the first time in … what, 35 years? … I’m not thrilled by the team’s name (ugh) or by the players on the team. The Nats are going to be mediocre for a long time. This team doesn’t have a whole lot of talent and it is competing against four big-market teams intent on winning. Life is going to be tough for Nats fans. Sorry fellas.

Tomorrow: the topsy-turvey world of the NL Central.