A CITIZEN'S BLOG

With the Super Bowl behind us and with the spring thaw coming (not soon enough for my liking), it’s time to talk about the Phillies prospects for the 2005 campaign. The last two years have left a bitterly disappointing aftertaste in the mouths of Phillies fans everywhere: the end of the Vet and the beginning of new traditions at Citizen’s, the additions of many new free agents … and nothing to show for it. The Atlanta Braves have dominated the NL East since the inception of the six-division format in 1994, winning division titles in 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000 … you get the idea. The Braves current win streak stands at ten, thirteen if you count the NL West titles they won from 1991-1993. Time for that to come to an end. I think it will, but the question is whether the Phillies can make it happen.

The 2003 and 2004 Phillies were supposed to end the Braves dominance. Millions were spent on free agents to exploit the team’s move to Citizens, and all was for naught. A deep pessimism shrouds the beginning of the 2005 campaign. 86-76 and no playoffs for the third straight year simpy won’t cut it. This team needs to win. Brooklyn Dodgers fans once consoled each other after disappointing seasons with the refrain “Wait ‘til Next Year”.

Well, for the Phillies this IS next year. If the Phillies don’t do 90+ wins and make the playoffs heads will roll. The ’06 team will be vastly different than it looks now. I think the Phillies will scrap the idea of winning now, attempt to shed their payroll and concentrate on a youth movement and restocking their farm system. So if the Phillies don’t win, this might be our last look at a contender for a while …

We’ll kick off our (cue fanfare) 2005 Season Preview with a discussion of the Phillies Fielding and its importance to the Phillies 2005 Pitching … Next week look for pitching, then batting and overall conclusions closer to the season.

So why fielding first? A few reasons…

1. It’s not something the average fan thinks much about. When have you seen a player’s Range Factor listed in the Inquirer’s stat page? But by delving into the Phillies defense, I hope to give A Citizen’s Blog’s readers a peek into the hidden game of baseball.

2. As Peter Gammons wrote last year, defense is the "Next Big Thing" in sabremetrics. Teams like the A’s and Red Sox targeted their focus on team defense in 2004. (The Red Sox decision to sacrifice the bat of Nomar for defense may be the thing that gave them their first World Series in 86 years.) People like Dave Pinto at Baseball Musings and Mike Humphries have introduced new theories (see, Dave's PMR; see, Mike's DRA) on team defense using stats like DER, Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR) and Range Factor. A lot has changed since George Will wrote: “[a] reason defense is not properly appreciated is that defensive excellance is difficult to express in the language baseball aficionadoes like to speak: statistics.” (Men At Work, page 271.)

3. More than with the Phillies lineup or their pitching staff, there are big, big changes afoot with the Phillies defense that have powerful implications for the team in 2005. If the Phillies are going to edge out the Marlins and Braves (forget the Mets) for first place in the NL East, they are going to have to play great defense.

So without further ado … Season Preview:

Fielding …

As I’ve said, one of the hidden and under-appreciated things about the recent Phillies teams have been their strong defensive play. You don’t think of the Phillies as being a good defensive team, but the proof is right there:

-The Phillies had the second fewest errors in the National League in 2004 (81).
-The Phillies finished second in Fielding Percentage* in the NL as well last year.

* Fielding Percentage: (Putouts + Assists) / (Putouts + Assists + Errors). How often the player successfully handled the ball.

Check out the Phillies rank in National League Fielding Percentage for the last four years:

2001: .985 (second)
2002: .986 (second)
2003: .984 (fifth)
2004: .987 (second)

Solid play on the part of the Phillies fielders. As a consequence the Phillies pitchers have seen some of their mistakes minimized by having such strong fielders behind them. Check out the differences in the actual ERAs of the Phillies pitchers and their Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP)* ERAs:

ERA / FIP (FIP Increase)
2001: 4.16 / 4.32 (+0.16)
2002: 4.17 / 4.27 (+0.10)
2003: 4.06 / 4.12 (+0.06)
2004: 4.47 / 4.67 (+0.20)

* FIP – Fielding Independent Pitching: [((13*HR+3*BB-2*K) / IP) + League Factor. I use 3.20 as the NL league factor.]

All four years the Phillies FIP ERAs have been higher than their actual ERAs. So what’s significant about this? Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) is a way for you to separate a pitcher from the quality of his fielders behind him by keeping track of his strikeouts, walks and home runs allowed (things he can only control) and not runs allowed, hits allowed, etc. (i.e., things his fielders partly control.) The fact that the Phillies pitchers FIPs are slightly worse than their actual ERAs means that Phillies fielders were able to get to balls put into play and convert them into outs better than most teams could. So the quality of the Phillies fielding shielded their pitchers from getting hit worse then they already did in 2004 (and in previous seasons when the team did pitch well).

Phillies fielders converted balls put into play into outs with tremendous efficiency in 2004:

Defense Efficiency Ratio* (DER)
1. St. Louis: .711
2. Los Angeles: .711
3. Philadelphia: .703
4. Florida: .700
5. Chicago: .698
6. New York: .698
7. San Francisco: .696
8. Milwaukee: .696
9. San Diego: .695
10. Montreal: .695
11. Cincinnati: .690
12. Atlanta: .690
13. Houston: .686
14. Pittsburgh: .685
15. Arizona: .684
16. Colorado: .678

* Defense Efficiency Ratio: (Batters Faced – (Hits + Walks + Hit By Pitch + Strikeouts)) / (Batters Faced – (Home Runs, Walks + Hit By Pitch + Strikeouts)) How often fielders convert balls put into play into outs.

As I said earlier, there is a lot of work being done on defense. Some of the most interesting work has been Dave Pinto’s Probabalistic Model of Range (PMR). PMR is an interesting look at defense: Dave compared a team and individual player’s actual DER’s as compared with their projected DER’s (the projected DER is derived from a computer program).

PMR gives additional weight to the argument that the Phillies were one of the best defensive teams in 2005, giving the Phillies a high (fifth of thirty MLB teams) rating, though I strongly doubt PMR’s conclusion that the Red Sox and Cubs were the Nos. 2 & 3 defensive teams in the MLB in 2004. Still, if you accept the outcome of Dave’s analysis (and I’ll admit my earlier skepticism has softened quite a bit), this is another piece of evidence supporting the argument that the Phillies are a good defensive team. I’ll actually be using PMR in my ratings later…

So the Phillies have been pretty darn good in the field. Will that continue? Well, there are signs that the Phillies defensive prowess is already in decline:

Zone Rating* / (NL Rank)
2001: .869 (first)
2002: .863 (fourth)
2003: .859 (second)
2004: .851 (sixth)

* Zone Rating (ZR): Is a stat which measures a player’s defensive ability by measuring plays they should have made. Admittedly, this is a stat left open to subjective opinions, but I like it the most because it is the most complete assessment we have of a player’s abilities. I rely on it heavily. Too bad ESPN eliminated it from their stats pages.

That’s a three-year decline from 2001-2004. I suspect the trend above will continue. So what’s going on with the Phillies fielders? The Phillies have been rotating better bats into their lineups at the cost of fielding. Travis Lee may have been a bad bat at first (.274 GPA in 2002, compared with Jim Thome’s .316 and .323 the last two seasons), but he was a good glove (.896 ZR in 2001, .864 in 2002, compared with Jim Thome: .852 in ’03, .817 in ’04 … The Phillies 2001-2002 infield of Marlon Anderson, Jimmy Rollins, Travis Lee and Scott Rolen / Placido Polanco may not have been as offensively productive as the current infield, but it was stout defensively. Check out the Phillies infield ZR and Fielding Percentages over the last three years:

IF Zone Rating (rnak) / IF Fielding Percentage (rank)
2004: .824 (fifth) / .985 (fourth)
2003: .832 (second) / .986 (second)
2002: .838 (first) / .984 (second)

So what does 2005 hold? Probably a further decline in infield defense:

2004 Defensive Alignment: (2004 – Fielding Win Shares per 1,000 innings)
1b Thome – 1.2
2b Polanco – 5.8
ss Rollins – 3.6
3b Bell – 3.5

IF Utley – 3.9
IF Perez – 3.7

2005 Defensive Alignment: (2004 – Fielding Win Shares per 1,000 innings)
1b Thome – 1.2
2b Utley – 3.9
ss Rollins – 3.6
3b Bell – 3.5

IF Polanco – 5.8
IF Perez – 3.7

As we all know, the biggest off-season story for the Phillies, after the search for a manager, was the decision of Placido Polanco to eschew big money on the free agency market and re-up with the Phillies in a one-year, four mil-plus deal despite Chase Utley’s installation at second base. Utley has struggled defensively at times but has tremendous talent at the plate and actually played pretty good defense in 2004. However, it seems likely that Utley to Polanco will be a defensive downgrade for the Phillies.

Polanco will either be dealt mid-season, or will serve as the Phillies super-utilityman (or will play if David Bell’s back doesn’t improve). I actually suspect that Polanco will get a decent amount of playing time in 2005: Jim Thome and David Bell are both injury prone and losing either to long-term injuries will force changes to the Phillies defensive alignment:

Without Bell:
1b Thome
2b Utley
ss Rollins
3b Polanco

Without Thome:
1b Utley
2b Polanco
ss Rollins
3b Bell

Without Bell & Thome:
1b Howard
2b Utley
ss Rollins
3b Polanco

The 2005 Bill James Handbook projects Bell and Thome to miss a combined 39 games in 2005, so Polanco could find his way into the lineup with some frequency in 2005, which might help improve the quality of the Phillies defense.

Speaking of Thome … last year was a terrible season for Thome with his glove. Check out Thome’s defensive decline, 2002-2004:

Zone Rating
2002: .854
2003: .852
2004: .817

How bad was Thome defensively? He was tenth among eleven regular NL first basemen in ZR. Ouch. Thome’s prowess at the plate more than make up for his defensive short-comings, but this isn’t a good sign for Phillies pitchers. With so many groundballers on the staff now, Phillies infielders can expect to see a lot of action in 2005. Having Polanco on the bench to fill in during defensive situations and for injuries will help, but Thome’s defensive foibles are problematic.

DRA rates Thome a disaster at first, though PMR is better: +.00225 (actual DER: .067 / projected: .065).

David Bell might also miss some time from the Phillies starting lineup, which I don’t think is a bad thing. Most bloggers aren’t big fans of Bell: he had something of a career year in 2004 at the plate, which I am skeptical can be repeated. Bell had an ok year with his glove:

Zone Rating: .775 (seventh of twelve NL 3B’s)
Range Factor: 2.88 (fifth)
Fielding Percentage: .943 (tenth)

Pretty mediocre. PMR rates him a little higher: +.00559 (actual DER: .099 / projected: .093). In case you are curious, Scott Rolen clocks in at +.01324 (actual DER: .107 / projected: .093). DRA rates Bell as one of the three best 3B’s in the game, though still a little behind Rolen. I tend to think Bell is average-to-a-little-better-than-average.

Which brings me to the Phillies middle infield of Placido Polanco, Jimmy Rollins and Chase Utley. The bottom line is that these three players are the linchpin of the Phillies defense. The Phillies will succeed or fail defensively based on how these three play in 2005.

Let’s talk about Jimmy Rollins … I wasn’t a big fan of Rollins last year at the start of the season. Marlon Byrd had won the job of lead-off hitter from Rollins, who had struck-out far too much in his three previous seasons to be a reliable threat to get on base. Rollins turned in a spectacular season in 2004, both at the plate and with his glove. As a consequence he’s probably the best shortstop in the National League today, perhaps not as good defensively as the Pirates Jack Wilson or the Dodgers Caesar Izturis, but he’s the complete package.

Here are Rollins stats:

Zone Rating: .858
Range Factor: 4.01
Fielding Percentage: .986

PMR rates Rollins well: -.00241 (actual: .113 / .115 proj.) (note that just six shortstops finished with positive PMRs), which is well into the top half of the league. Rollins actually out-performed the Pirates Gold Glove winner Jack Wilson (-.00448), and finished just behind AL Rookie of the Year Bobby Crosby. I think Rollins is one of the three or four best shortstops in baseball and I expect him to flee in free agency in 2005, which leaves a gap in the Phillies defensive alignment.

DRA also rates Rollins positively, though he finishes well behind Nomar and the Orioles Tejada. (Note: Rollins ties with Wilson here and finishes much better than the Yankees Derek Jeter, ’04 Gold Glovers for short.)

The Phillies transition from Polanco to Utley is a big unknown. I note that Dave Pinto’s PMR stunned us all by rating Utley first amongst all 2b’s:

Utley: +.00740 (.127 actual / .120 proj.)
Polanco: +.00021 (.118 actual / .118 proj.)

Polanco wasn’t much worse (actually seventh of fifty or so), but he wasn’t nearly as strong statistically as Utley. Initially I was skeptical about the information, until I noted that ZR backs it up:

Utley: .864
Polanco: .816

We’ll have to see if a full season of wear-and-tear would decrease Utley’s numbers (he played just 410 innings to Polanco’s 944 in 2004), but it seems likely that he’ll continue to be a strong performer for the Phillies. The fear of a massive defensive decline with Placido Polanco on the bench is probably unfounded.

Outfield:

When I played little league I played in the outfield because I was a MASSIVE defensive liability for my team. Outfielders just aren’t as important to the defensive health of a team as the infielders and catchers are. According to Bill James Win Shares book, your three outfielders contribute to just 29% of a team’s overall defense:

OF: 29%
C: 19%
1b: 6%
2b: 16%
ss: 18%
3b: 12%

It makes sense when you think about it: ground balls are more common than fly balls. Last year there were 1.25 groundballs per 1 fly ball in the National League. Outfielders don’t see as many balls hit in their direction and they don’t need the split second reaction time second basemen and shortstops do. So offensive firepower is at a premium in the outfield, as evidenced by the fact that two of the Phillies big three bats are their corner outfielders: Pat Burrell and Bobby Abreu. To put it kindly, neither is going to win the gold glove anytime soon. Here are the six Phillies outfielders Fielding Win Shares per 1,000 innings:

LF Burrell: 2.5
RF Abreu: 2.7
CF Byrd: 3.5
OF Michaels: 4.1
OF Ledee: 6.3
OF Glanville: 5.1

Here’s who played for the Phillies in 2004:

Innings Played / % of Phillies Innings
Abreu: 1,394 (95%)
Burrell: 1,060 (72%)
Byrd: 753 (52%)
Michaels: 617 (42%)
Glanville: 351 (24%)
Ledee: 175 (12%)

Ledee and Glanville, theoretically the Phillies two best outfield gloves (though, as you can see from above, they also played the fewest innings), are no longer with the team: Ledee was dealt to the Giants last summer and Glanville was cut loose this off-season because he was just a poor bat. So the Phillies are probably going to go with Burrell in left, Abreu in right, and ex-Yankee / ex-Pirate / ex-Cub / ex-White Sox / ex-Indian / (and I’m sure there are some I’m forgetting) Kenny Lofton in centerfield with Marlon Byrd and Jason Michaels backing them up. I think it’s a good outfield, but not a great one.

Bobby Abreu plays right field for the Phillies because he might be one of the five or six best hitters in baseball. The Phillies don’t have him out there for his defensive skills. Abreu ranked sixth of eight NL RF’s in ZR. Dave's PMR is rather scathing in its analysis of Abreu: -.00440 (actual: .073 / .078), ranking him sixth worst of fifty or so. Ouch.

Here are Abreu’s stats:

ZR: .871
Range Factor: 2.09
Fielding Percentage: .982
Assists: 13

Though I am a staunch defender of Pat Burrell’s batting abilities, I don’t pretend that Burrell is anything but average in left. He finished third of seven NL LF’s in ZR and finished second in range factor. Decent, but PMR rates Burrell much, much worse: -.00467 (actual: .066 / proj.: .071). That’s about as bad as Abreu.

Here are Burrell’s stats:

ZR: .872
Range Factor: 1.92
Fielding Percentage: .983
Assists: 9

Centerfield is where things get interesting for 2005. Is Lofton an upgrade over Byrd? Here is what PMR says:

Lofton: -.00379 (actual: .098 / .102 proj.)
Byrd: -.00398 (actual: .086 / .090 proj.)

Middle of the pack. Let’s start with the Byrd issue:

Byrd is an interesting case. Formerly the Phillies lead-off hitter and centerfielder, he’s been downgraded to reserve outfielder and probably won’t get much playing time in 2005 (this is provided he won’t get dealt). How will he handle the demotion? How would he react if thrust back into the starting lineup? Those are big questions and I suspect we won’t get a chance to answer them: I see Byrd as being dealt at some point in the year because the team wants to recoup on its investment.

Loften statistically is slightly stronger in center, though I note he’s significantly older than Byrd. (Byrd: 27; Lofton: 38.) I’ll assume that Lofton will play whenever possible (Bill James projects 105 games for Lofton in 2005), but he can’t play more than 2/3 of the Phillies innings. Make no mistake about it: Kenny Lofton is a transitory signing for the Phillies. Don't expect him to be the Phillies CF in 2006. He was signed to push Marlon Byrd into regaining his job, or to fill in until the Phillies could trade for a new centerfielder.

The Bench:

Michaels and Byrd make a capable pair off the bench in the outfield. Michaels in particular is a versatile player and quintessential reserve outfielder: he logged innings in left (227), center (323) and right (67) in 2004. He played in 27 games as a defensive substitution in 2004 and started another 68.

The Phillies don’t have much of an infield bench, chiefly because Placido Polanco is their fifth infielder and we should expect him to play a lot of innings in 2005. Ryan Howard is the Phillies other bench guy. I don’t know how to evaluate Howard. We really don’t have any real data, beyond the little he played in 2004, so I can’t pass judgment on his defensive skills. It will be interesting, particularly if the Phillies have injuries to Bell and Thome, to see how well Howard plays.

Catching … It’s difficult to work out how valuable a catcher is to his team’s defense. According to Bill James he’s 19% of a team’s defense, the largest single position on the field. That’s because the catcher does a lot more than field the ball: he manages the game by calling pitches, defends against runners stealing second and third, blocks the plate … the catcher does a lot, all the while squatting in the dirt with a few pounds of protective padding on him in the hot sunlight. It’s a rough job, but someone had to do it. Here who did it for the Phillies in 2005:

Innings worked…
Mike Lieberthal: 1104 (75%)
Todd Pratt: 333 (23%)
A.J. Hinch: 25 (2%)

I’ll start my evaluation of the Phillies catchers by listing their Fielding Win Shares per 1,000 innings:

Lieberthal: 3.4
Pratt: 3.9
Hinch: 7.8

Hinch’s high number is obviously the product of his limited innings worked. Pratt narrowly edges out Lieberthal, but Lieberthal did a good job in 2004: he threw out 20% of base-stealers (20 of 94 attempts) and managed a pitching staff that surrendered home runs by the bushel. Lieberthal’s Catcher ERA was an absurdly high 4.66, but I don’t think it is a fair stat to evaluate a catcher. I tend to look at how often runners try to steal on a catcher to judge his true defensive abilities. While it is true that Lieberthal had a large number of base-stealers in 2004, you have to adjust that for the number of innings he worked: Lieberthal tied for third in the NL in innings worked amongst catchers, just behind the Pirates Kendall (1,259) and Montreal’s Schneider (1,114). (And tied with the Marlins and Dodger Paul Lo Duca: 1,104.2)

Lieberthal had 35 fewer stealers than Lo Duca. Lieberthal averaged 85 stealers per 1,000 innings, compared with the Braves Estrada’s 82. Lo Duca and Estrada had two of the better CERA’s in the NL in 2004.

Pratt is the quinessential backup catcher: tough, dependable, a good bat off the bench, can fill in for the starter when he needs a rest. Because backups play so much (even a durable catcher like Jason Kendall can’t play more than 80% of the time), they are probably the most important bench player a team can have. Luckily, the Phillies have one of the best.

Conclusions:

Fielding Win Shares as % of Overall Win Shares:

Thome: 6%
Polanco: 34%
Utley: 25%
Rollins: 19%
Bell: 22%
Perez: 33%

Burrell: 18%
Abreu: 10%
Byrd: 48%
Ledee: 19%
Glanville: 129%
Michaels: 23%

Lieberthal: 41%
Pratt: 34%

I thought this was an interesting stat to show how much these players contribute to the Phillies season with their gloves. Defense counts for a lot. Look above and you’ll see how multi-dimensional some of the Phillies (Polanco, Utley, Rollins) are. Thome and Abreu are tremendous bats, but they contribute little to the Phillies defense. I think defense counts for a lot because it is the hard grunt work that doesn’t show up on your stat sheet. George Will asked, in the context of Richie Ashburn’s exclusion from the Hall of Fame (this was prior to his election and induction), why a defensive play robbing a batter of a double wasn’t as highly valued as hitting a double. You don’t see on box scores:

“Doubles denied: Burrell 2 (13); Polanco (28)”

You see:

“Doubles: Burrell 2 (13); Polanco (8)”.

As I said, Defense is the Next Big Thing. It is important for the Phillies to be on the cutting edge, which I think they are. So what is the impact on the Phillies pitching? …

“Defense and pitching go hand in hand. Good defense helps pitching and good pitching helps defense.”

So said Cal Ripken, Jr. This is the big X factor. I think the Phillies fielding helps the pitchers more than the pitching helps them. Tremendous the starting lineup was on the field and at the plate in 2004, but the Phillies pitchers suffered and crippled the team. Thanks to the Phillies terrific defense the pitching staff out-performed their FIP ERA by 0.08. The Phillies pitching improved in 2005, but the fielders will continue to have to minimze the damage done to pitchers egos by Citizen’s Bank by snaring balls put into play with as much frequency as they can. With so many groundball hurlers on staff now that Eric Milton is a Red and Jon Liber is a Phillie, defense is vital to the Phillies chances in 2005. The Phillies fielders will see a lot of balls in 2005 and they need to be vaccum cleaners in the field for the Phillies to have success.

If the NL East is to be won, it will be with the glove, not the bat.