A CITIZEN'S BLOG

A 12-1 home-stand, a 2-4 road-stand … sense the ebb and flow of the Phillies season? The Phillies are a formidable 22-11 at home and 16-21 on the road. Naturally teams play better at home than on the road, but the Phillies look especially lost when they travel on the road. I wonder if the psychological aspects of Citizens Bank weigh on their minds when they play in a place like Safeco Field or Petco Park.

I was curious about that so I played around a little and here is what I found out. Check out Home Slugging Percentage to date:

Slugging Percentage (Top 5):
1. Philadelphia: .480
2. Colorado: .479
3. Cincinnati: .473
4. Chicago: .468
5. Arizona: .466

The Phillies rank fourteenth in road slugging percentage (.361), a .119 variance. Check out Home ISO:

ISO (Top 5):
1. Cincinnati: .205
2. Chicago: .193
3. Arizona: .185
4. Philadelphia: .184
5. Milwaukee: .177

The Phillies are sixteenth of sixteen teams in road ISO (.110) … The conclusion that the casual observer would derive from that would be to say: “The Phillies benefit from the cozy confines of Citizens Bank Ballpark…” But check out statistics that don’t key off of Citizens, things like OBP:

Home OBP (Top 5):
1. Philadelphia: .379
2. Colorado: .369
3. Arizona: .354
4. Florida: .354
5. St. Louis: .353

The Phillies only rank seventh in road OBP (.329) …

Confused about what I’m talking about? Here are the stats defined:
ISO (Isolated Power): .SLG - .BA = .ISO. Measures a player’s raw power by subtracting singles from their slugging percentage.
OBP (On-Base Percentage): How often a player gets on base. (H + BB + HBP) / (Plate Appearances)
BB / PA (Walks per plate appearance): (BB / PA = .BB/PA Avg)

Now in the interest of full disclosure I’ll concede that the Phillies rank first in walks-per-plate-appearance on the road and at home, but there is little doubt that this team plays more aggressively and confidently at home than on the road. Watching the Phillies flail at pitches in the Seattle series gave me that clue.

The home confidence is going to come in handy in the coming weeks. From now until the end of July the Phillies play 22 of their next 29 games at home. Aside from a trip to Queens to face-off with the Mets and a four game set in the Three Rivers with the Pirates, the Phillies will be playing every game at home for the next month (until July 25). The team used the home-stand to vault from fifth to second place. They need to take advantage of this opportunity and bury the surprising Nationals. Circle July 8-10 on your calendars: the Phillies play a three game set at Citizens before the All-Star Break. I think that will be the date that will make-or-break the Phillies season.

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A word about my blogging habits: I’ve fallen behind over the last few months in my blogging due to my job and home-buying. When I was studying for the bar exam I blogged to take my mind off the horrific test that awaited me at the end of the summer and I think the number-crunching helped me focus my mind. These days I have a lot less discretionary time, but I want people who write comments and email me to know that while I may take a few days to get back to you or if I don’t respond to comments, I do read what you have to say and take it into account. Comments, constructive or destructive, keep me going and interested. So please, keep ‘em coming.