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Michael/Male/26-30. Lives in United States/Pennsylvania/Wexford/Christopher Wren, speaks English. Spends 20% of daytime online. Uses a Fast (128k-512k) connection. And likes baseball /politics.
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United States, Pennsylvania, Wexford, Christopher Wren, English, Michael, Male, 26-30, baseball , politics.

Tuesday, June 21, 2005

The Road Ahead... 

A 12-1 home-stand, a 2-4 road-stand … sense the ebb and flow of the Phillies season? The Phillies are a formidable 22-11 at home and 16-21 on the road. Naturally teams play better at home than on the road, but the Phillies look especially lost when they travel on the road. I wonder if the psychological aspects of Citizens Bank weigh on their minds when they play in a place like Safeco Field or Petco Park.

I was curious about that so I played around a little and here is what I found out. Check out Home Slugging Percentage to date:

Slugging Percentage (Top 5):
1. Philadelphia: .480
2. Colorado: .479
3. Cincinnati: .473
4. Chicago: .468
5. Arizona: .466

The Phillies rank fourteenth in road slugging percentage (.361), a .119 variance. Check out Home ISO:

ISO (Top 5):
1. Cincinnati: .205
2. Chicago: .193
3. Arizona: .185
4. Philadelphia: .184
5. Milwaukee: .177

The Phillies are sixteenth of sixteen teams in road ISO (.110) … The conclusion that the casual observer would derive from that would be to say: “The Phillies benefit from the cozy confines of Citizens Bank Ballpark…” But check out statistics that don’t key off of Citizens, things like OBP:

Home OBP (Top 5):
1. Philadelphia: .379
2. Colorado: .369
3. Arizona: .354
4. Florida: .354
5. St. Louis: .353

The Phillies only rank seventh in road OBP (.329) …

Confused about what I’m talking about? Here are the stats defined:
ISO (Isolated Power): .SLG - .BA = .ISO. Measures a player’s raw power by subtracting singles from their slugging percentage.
OBP (On-Base Percentage): How often a player gets on base. (H + BB + HBP) / (Plate Appearances)
BB / PA (Walks per plate appearance): (BB / PA = .BB/PA Avg)

Now in the interest of full disclosure I’ll concede that the Phillies rank first in walks-per-plate-appearance on the road and at home, but there is little doubt that this team plays more aggressively and confidently at home than on the road. Watching the Phillies flail at pitches in the Seattle series gave me that clue.

The home confidence is going to come in handy in the coming weeks. From now until the end of July the Phillies play 22 of their next 29 games at home. Aside from a trip to Queens to face-off with the Mets and a four game set in the Three Rivers with the Pirates, the Phillies will be playing every game at home for the next month (until July 25). The team used the home-stand to vault from fifth to second place. They need to take advantage of this opportunity and bury the surprising Nationals. Circle July 8-10 on your calendars: the Phillies play a three game set at Citizens before the All-Star Break. I think that will be the date that will make-or-break the Phillies season.

-----
A word about my blogging habits: I’ve fallen behind over the last few months in my blogging due to my job and home-buying. When I was studying for the bar exam I blogged to take my mind off the horrific test that awaited me at the end of the summer and I think the number-crunching helped me focus my mind. These days I have a lot less discretionary time, but I want people who write comments and email me to know that while I may take a few days to get back to you or if I don’t respond to comments, I do read what you have to say and take it into account. Comments, constructive or destructive, keep me going and interested. So please, keep ‘em coming.

Comments:
I'm reading & appreciate the blog. Thanks.
 
a regular reader for the past 6 months - keep up the good work.
Larry, Oakville,ON
 
Great Blog!

on this topic, how do other teams ISOs, Slugging %s and OBPs compare at citizens bank ballpark versus elswhere.
though the n will be small b/c each other team plays only a hanful of games i suspect like the phils everyone's stats should be higher at citizen's.
the interesting question which could prove or disprove your theory is how the variance of the Phillies compares to the aggregate variance of the other teams playing (perhaps limited to NL teams to remove another confounding variable,the DH).
zach
 
I think your blog is horrible, but for some reason, I keep coming back over, and over, and over...hm, maybe that's because it really isn't horrible. Yeah, that's it.

Anyhow, I wouldn't fret over that road record -- good teams go .500 on the road, so being 5 games below isn't too bad. If the Phillies had went 4-2 instead of 2-4, they'd be 18-19 on the road.

They're not too far away...
 
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Yahoo News - Oct. 13, 2005


Yahoo Japan steps up mobile content distribution (Reuters via Yahoo! News)
Yahoo Japan Corp. said on Thursday it had launched a mobile content distribution service, in which cellphone users can buy games, ring tones, news and other entertainment and information from 59 content providers.


Microsoft, Yahoo to link instant messages (USATODAY.com via Yahoo! News)
Microsoft and Yahoo will make their instant-messaging programs work together, a partnership that could give the companies more power to compete against market leader America Online. The companies expect the service to start by June 2006.


Yahoo to Bar Minor-Adult Sex Chat Rooms (Washington Post)
NEW YORK -- Yahoo Inc. said Wednesday it will bar chat rooms that promote sex between minors and adults and restrict all chat rooms to users 18 and older.

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