A CITIZEN'S BLOG

… when asked to rank what the Phillies biggest off-season moves were, I didn’t hesitate to state that allowing Eric Milton to leave via free agency was a good decision, maybe the biggest. I also didn’t hesitate to praise their decision to sign Yankees hurler Jon Lieber to a three year deal. Lieber was a vastly under-rated pitcher who would thrive at Citizens, I believed. Now, nearly half-way through the 2005 campaign, I’m less than pleased with the decision. I tend to think Lieber will be fine, but if you were to ask me to grade the Phillies decisions in the off-season I’d grade Milton's walk an A and Lieber's signing a D.

Here’s why:

Lieber is currently a respectable 8-6, but his pitching stats reveal some problems:

ERA: 4.63
FIP: 5.47
WHIP: 1.31
K/9: 5.19
BB/9: 1.89
HR/9: 1.89

Confused about what I’m talking about? Here are the stats I talk about defined:
WHIP – Walks plus hits by innings pitched: (BB + H) / IP = WHIP
ERA – Earned Run Average: (Earned Runs * 9) / IP = ERA
FIP – Fielding Independent Pitching: (13*HR+3*BB-2*K / IP) + League Factor Evaluates a pitching by how he would have done with an average defense behind him by keeping track of things that a pitcher can control (walks, strikeouts, home runs allowed) as opposed to things he cannot (hits allowed, runs allowed).
DER – Defense Efficiency Ratio: (Batters Faced – (Hits + Walks + Hit By Pitch + Strikeouts)) / (Batters Faced – (Home Runs, Walks + Hit By Pitch + Strikeouts)) How often fielders convert balls put into play into outs.
G/F – Groundball-to-Flyball ratio.
Hr/9 – Home Runs allowed per nine innings.
K/9 – Strikeouts per nine innings.
BB/9 – Walks per nine innings.

He’s surrendered 20 home runs and walks in 95 and a third innings so far this season. To get some comparison I note that Lieber surrendered 20 homers and 18 walks all last season (176 innings) with the Yankees. So Lieber is off. Here is what he did with the Yankees in 2004:

ERA: 4.33
FIP: 3.94
WHIP: 1.32
K/9: 5.19
BB/9: 0.92
HR/9: 1.01

WHIP, K’s and ERAs are basically in-line with one another, but Lieber has almost doubled his walks and home runs allowed. As a result he's running badly behind his FIP, a stark contrast to 2004 when he ran ahead of it.

What is particularly striking to me is the fact that one of the reasons I felt Lieber would prosper with the Phillies, his ability to get opposing batters to hit groundballs, is something he's mostly retained:

2005 G/F ratio: 1.35
2004 G/F ratio: 1.43

Fairly constant. The Phillies have also given Lieber a lot of help defensively. Lieber left a pretty poor defensive alignment in New York and joined a team that plays some pretty good D:

2005 DER: .733
2004 DER: .677

Lieber's getting pretty good play behind him, so his struggles aren't based on team play. I hate to concede it, but Lieber's problem appears to be partly his environment. Unlike Eric Milton, whose struggles were never adequately explained by his ballpark then or now, Lieber really does struggle at home as compared with the road:

Road / Home
ERA: 3.83 / 5.56
WHIP: 1.18 / 1.47
HR/9: 1.74 / 2.06
BB/9: 1.74 / 2.06

Lieber has surrendered 10 home runs and walks on the road and at home each, but he pitched eight fewer innings at home than the road. As I said, environment is partly to blame, but not entirely. Lieber's walks and home runs are badly off what he did in 2004. It might be unreasonable to expect Lieber to duplicate his ridiculously stingey walk total from '04, but his home runs are far too high.

So what's wrong with Lieber? Citizens hasn't been a whole lot of fun for him, but he's clearly off. Was 2004 a fluke for him? Is he suffering through arm trouble? We'll have to wait-and-see. Let's hope Lieber starts on the road to recovery tonight against the Red Sox.