Michael/Male/26-30. Lives in United States/Pennsylvania/Wexford/Christopher Wren, speaks English. Spends 20% of daytime online. Uses a Fast (128k-512k) connection. And likes baseball /politics.
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Friday, July 08, 2005

The Week(s) That Will Be... 

The Phillies season will basically be decided over the next 13 games. If the Phillies are going to have a shot, they need to stay within striking distance of first and compete for the wildcard. They need to do well in these next 13 home games (another 12-1 run would be nice), or they'll pretty much fall out of the race.

For all of the hand-wringing about this season people forget an important factor in the Phillies struggles: they compete in a tough division and they are chasing a very lucky team. Check out the standings:

NL East:
Washington: 51-33
Atlanta: 47-37
Florida: 43-39
Philadelphia: 43-42
New York Mets: 42-42

Now check out the pythagorean win-loss records:

Pythagorean Win-Loss:
Atlanta: 51-33
Florida: 44-38
New York Mets: 43-42
Philadelphia: 42-43
Washington: 42-43

The Nats are out-performing their pythagorean win-loss record by a whopping 9 games, a product of their 30-12 record in close games. I wouldn't count on that continuing, though I've been predicting their collapse for weeks.

Congrats to Jimmy Rollins and Bill Wagner for joining Bobby Abreu in Detroit. I think Pat Burrell should be there, but oh well.

Stay tuned, because I've got some big plans in the works for A Citizen's Blog, including catching up on my email! Have a nice weekend everyone!

Washingtons flukey record does not necessarily mean they will "collapse" at any point. If they play mediocre .500 ball, they still end up with 90-91 wins. The Braves will be in 1st by the end of the month (if not sooner) and will have the divison iced by Labor Day.

Rollins is undeserving of his ASG berth and I am guessing he is in only because LaRussa wants to get the W and homefield advantage in the WS and Rollins was picked for late-inning defensive purposes. Pat Burrell didnt deserve it either as a player who goes on tears and drops into funks rather than hitting somewhat consistantly is not a star in my book, regardless of what the aggregrate #'s for the season look like.

If you sort the Park Factor by HR's, CBP is actually 9th. I don't know if that has any real bearing on your thoughts. But, and I put a big but on this, we have not reached the hot part of the year yet either. When those thermals start pushing up in the outfield look out. That would be interesting; how many HR's allowed during July Aug early Sept?

Brian Toombs
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