A CITIZEN'S BLOG

It has been a while since I’ve done an analysis of the Phillies team stats. This year has been a disturbing puzzle: a lineup loaded top-to-bottom with terrific bats has failed to click at the plate. What happened? I have a theory of sorts...

Here is how the Phillies did Month-to-Month:

On-Base-Percentage/ Slugging Percentage
April: .334 / .364
May: .369 / .430
June: .338 / .432
July: .343 / .421
Total: .346 / .412

Obviously April was a rough month for the team. What is interesting to me is that the ’04 Phillies finished the season with a roughly similar OBP (.345), but an absurdly higher slugging percentage (.443). In no month did the Phillies really come that close to equaling their ’04 slugging percentages.

GPA / ISO
April: .241 / .114
May: .274 / .150
June: .260 / .160
July: .260 / .151
Total: .259 / .144
’04 Total: .266 / .176

Again, the Phillies are roughly in line in terms of OBP (the bigger component to GPA), but well-off in slugging percentage (the component to ISO).

Clearly the Phillies played better in ’04. Compare the month of June in ’04 & ’05:

June 2004: .359 OBP / .474 SLG / 44 HR / 49 2B / 159 Runs
June 2005: .338 OBP / .432 SLG / 32 HR / 39 2B / 135 Runs
Decrease: -.021 OBP / -.042 SLG / -12 HR / -10 2B / -24 Runs

Note, I didn’t adjust these for plate appearances or park differences, but I think it is a pretty fair representation of how the Phillies have fallen on hard times since June was such a successful month for the team in so many respects.

So let’s return to an old topic that gets rehashed from time-to-time: Citizen’s Bank. I think a small forest of trees will be chopped down before a consensus emerges on whether or not Citizens is good or bad for the Phillies. Initially I derided the criticism of Citizens Bank: if it is such a hitters park, I complained in ‘04, then why did Eric Milton surrender more home runs on the road than home?

I’m willing to rethink my initial beliefs on the issue. Scope out some interesting numbers:

First, here are the Phillies home stats for the last three seasons (inc. this one):

2005 (Rank) / 2004 (Rank) / 2003 (Rank)
OBP: .352 (2) / .348 (5) / .350 (5)
SLG: .456 (5) / .450 (6) / .430 (10)
ISO: .173 (6) / .185 (3) / .166 (8)
Runs: 306 (2) / 424 (4) / 394 (8)

In terms of the stats, the ’04 and ’05 seasons closely mirror one-another: the Phillies are getting on base and hitting with authority, although they hit with much more raw power in ’04. Clearly Citizens has had a positive impact on the team when you compare with the ’03 numbers (the team itself really hasn’t changed any from ’03 to ’05), where the Vet’s reputation as a pitchers park is clearly shown to be earned.

Here are the Phillies away stats:

2005 (Rank) / 2004 (Rank) / 2003 (Rank)
OBP: .328 (8) / .343 (4) / .336 (3)
SLG: .363 (15) / .436 (3) / .410 (7)
ISO: .112 (16) / .168 (4) / .151 (8)
Runs: 202 (15) / 416 (3) / 397 (3)

I hope everyone who is reading this lets out a low whistle at the ’05 team’s stats. This is a dramatic, horrific collapse the team is in the midst of. While the Phillies may have played like gang-busters in ’04 at home they still swung the bat with authority on the road. The ’05 team plays like Dr. Jekyll & Mr. Hyde: the second-best OBP team at home and the eighth-best on the road. Fifth-best slugging team at home, fifteenth on the road. Sixth-best in ISO (raw power) at home and the worst on the road. Second-best in scoring runs at home, second-worst in scoring runs on the road.

What is particularly perplexing to me is the OBP: this is theoretically a ballpark-neutral stat in many respects. Why the variance?

Now let me add a little fuel to the fire by noting some fairly stunning pitching stats:

Home: 4.78 ERA (13th); 1.37 WHIP (11th); .467 Slugging percentage allowed (14th)
Road: 3.97 ERA (3rd); 1.27 WHIP (1st); .413 Slugging percentage (4th)

Dr. Jekyll & Mr. Hyde: the team sweats for runs and pitches well on the road, then hits like gangbusters at home but needs it because the pitching gets shelled. (Last night's game being an interesting exception.)

I’ve tried to argue that Citizens isn’t a hitters park, but I’m about ready to throw in the towel on this one. I think the park gave this team multiple-personality disorder this year: they play one way on the road and the other at home. I'm open to other suggestions, but is there is any other way to make sense of the numbers?

Confused about what I’m talking about? Here are the stats I refer to defined:
ISO (Isolated Power): .SLG - .BA = .ISO. Measures a player’s raw power by subtracting singles from their slugging percentage.
OBP (On-Base Percentage): How often a player gets on base. (H + BB + HBP) / (Plate Appearances)
GPA (Gross Productive Average): (1.8 * .OBP + .SLG) / 4 = .GPA. Invented by The Hardball Times Aaron Gleeman, GPA measures a players production by weighing his ability to get on base and hit with power. This is my preferred all-around stat.
SLG (Slugging Percentage): Power at the plate. (Total Bases / At-Bats = Slugging Percentage)
WHIP – Walks plus hits by innings pitched: (BB + H) / IP = WHIP
ERA – Earned Run Average: (Earned Runs * 9) / IP = ERA