A CITIZEN'S BLOG

Jim Thome is going to have season-ending surgery on his elbow next week, ending a year that I'm sure he'd prefer to forget. Ryan Howard will play out the rest of the year as the Phillies first baseman, putting the team in a quandry about what to do with Howard for the 2006 campaign.

Here are Thome's final 2005 numbers:

HR: 7
OBP: .360
SLG: .352
RBI: 30

Thome played in just 59 games this season, his lowest total since 1993. He posted his lowest OBP since 1994 (when he hit .359), and his lowest slugging percentage since 1992 (.299). The decline in Thome's OBP is negligable, but the slip in slugging percentage should be terrifying to Phillies fans: he was .240 off his career average this season. When players age the first "tool" they lose is their ability to hit for power. Has Thome lost that ability?

I dearly hope not, but he's going to be 35 this year and there is a lot of wear-and-tear on his body from 1,738 baseball games in his career. My sense is that 2004 was Thome's last great statistical year. I don't think he'll get back to those heights again in 2006.

Tomorrow: I am working on a big numbers project that I hope will shed some light on the Phillies and their strategies. I hope it will be ready tomorrow, otherwise it'll be Monday.