A CITIZEN'S BLOG

Arguing over what order to bat players is always a favored past-time of baseball fans. Recently there has been some work done on lineup construction: click here for an excellent article from The Hardball Times Dave Studeman discussing various analysis for how to determine what order you need to bat players.

In George Will’s Men At Work Tony La Russa stated that he liked to scatter hitters thru the lineup without constructing a sort of “murderers row”, which would leave the rest of his lineup in trouble. Regression analysis conducted by various baseball writers have a more sophisticated take on the subject. The Book, the new book from Tangotiger and MGL, states that the two best hitters should bat 1,2 in your lineup, etc. Essentially, you should bat them in order of quality, but flip the #3 and #4 guys.

The topic of where to bat Phillies was on the mind of Beerleaguer’s Jason Weitzel, whose comment that the Phils decision to bat Mike Lieberthal and David Bell back-to-back killed their chances of scoring runs in 1/3 of the Phillies innings because Bell & Lieberthal had become a black hole in the Phillies lineup. Jason’s analysis even got on Daily News Live.

Dave Pinto put a lineup utilization feature on his blog. I punched in the Phils stats and here is what I came up with:

GPA:
Abreu: .301
Utley: .304
Lieberthal: .256
Howard: .302
Burrell: .301
Rollins: .260
Rowland: .250
Pitcher: .116
Bell: .230

GPA (Gross Productive Average): (1.8 * .OBP + .SLG) / 4 = .GPA. Invented by The Hardball Times Aaron Gleeman, GPA measures a players production by weighing his ability to get on base and hit with power. This is my preferred all-around stat.

Here are the results.

The Phillies, from what I understand, intend to have the batting order look like this is 2006:

GPA:
Rollins: .260
Rowland: .250
Utley: .304
Abreu: .301
Burrell: .301
Howard: .302
Bell: .230
Lieberthal: .256
Pitcher: .116

Jimmy Rollins leading off with Abreu batting cleanup. Jimmy Rollins won the leadoff slot after Marlon Byrd fell on hard times and got dealt to the Nats. Despite his 36-game hitting streak I'm not a huge fan of Jimmy leading off: his .338 OBP isn't high enough for my taste. I'd love to see Bobby leading off (.405 OBP, plus speed: 31 steals in 40 attempts, comparable to J.Roll's 41 in 47), but he's made it clear he hates that idea. That's a pity: Bobby has a lot of pop in his bat and might do more damage rattling pitchers with a lead-off double or home run. (62 extra-base hits in 2005.)

The sight of Bell and Lieberthal batting together above the pitcher is a horrible sight. Jason is right: the Phillies might as well kiss off 3 out of every 9 innings because there is no way Lieberthal and Bell are going to produce runs. The Phils might be better sending Bell up to the two slot (hear me out!), where he hit .400 (6 for 15) in 2004. Maybe David will see better pitches with the meat of the Phillies order sitting behind him. Either way, the Phils need to break these two apart.

I'd like to see Pat Burrell or Chase Utley hitting between them. I think Pat and Chase have established themselves as dangerous hitters and they could protect the lower half of the lineup. I'd keep Ryan Howard batting higher up, mix him in with the big bats to make sure he sees good pitches and keeps building his confidence from 2005.

Here is my ideal lineup:

GPA:
Abreu: .301
Rowland: .250
Howard: .302
Utley: .304
Burrell: .301
Bell: .230
Rollins: .260
Lieberthal: .256
Pitcher: .116

Bobby and Aaron can get on base, then Ryan and Chase and Pat have opportunities to bat them home. Slip J.Roll in at the bottom to give the lower part of the lineup some speed and give the Phillies some baserunners in the lower half of the order.

Thoughts?

Part II of my Season Preview series will be published Monday.