Michael/Male/26-30. Lives in United States/Pennsylvania/Wexford/Christopher Wren, speaks English. Spends 20% of daytime online. Uses a Fast (128k-512k) connection. And likes baseball /politics.
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Friday, August 11, 2006

More on Base Runs 

It has been a while since I’ve discussed the Phillies 2006 campaign and noted how they’ve been performing. My new, current favorite stat-of-the-moment is Base Runs, a formula developed by Dave Smyth a few years ago to calculate a player’s total contribution to a team’s offense that rivals Bill James classic Runs Created.

(For the uninitiated, the idea behind Runs Created and Base Runs is to accurately sum up a player’s contribution to his team’s offense by looking at things that he does, like hitting and drawing walks, as opposed to things he must rely on his teammates for, like runs scored and RBIs.)

I’ve adopted Base Runs as one of my favorite stats because of two reasons:

1. It is relatively uncomplicated to calculate.
2. It is fairly accurate.

I’ve found the most recent version of Runs Created to be more accurate and reliable than Base Runs, but the formulas are a world apart:

Base Runs
A: H + BB + HBP – HR
B: (.8 * 1B) + (2.1 * 2B) + (3.4 * 3B) + (1.8 * HR) + (.1*(BB + HBP))
C: AB – H

Then simply divide B into B + C, then multiply A to the result and add D.

Runs Created
A: H + BB + HBP – CS – GIDP
B: (1.125 * 1B) + (1.69 * 2B) + (3.02 * 3B) + (3.73 * HR) + (.29 * (BB + HBP – IBB)) + (.492 * (SB + SF + SH)) – (.04 * K)
C: AB + BB + HBP + SF + SH

Then multiple A times B, then divide by C.

Bottom-line, I simply don’t have the time to sit down and write all of that out. Base Runs are simpler. ESPN.com keeps track of Runs Created, but they are apparently still tracking the version Bill James ditched in 2004, so their Runs Created stats are pretty inaccurate, something that reflects badly on ESPN’s desire to be a fan’s “one-stop shop” for stats. That, and their decision to publish all of their articles in the Insider section, leave me feeling pretty cold to ESPN.com these days.

So how are the Phillies doing, Base Runs-wise? As a team they are actually doing well:

Runs Scored / Base Runs Scored: 555 / 536
Runs Allowed / Base Runs Allowed: 562 / 571

They are out-scoring their numbers and are allowing fewer runs than their Base Runs allowed would suggest. Here are the Phillies top performers:

Chase Utley: 84
Ryan Howard: 81
Bobby Abreu: 69
Pat Burrell: 61
Jimmy Rollins: 61
David Bell: 43
Aaron Rowand: 42
David Dellucci: 32
Shane Victorino: 21
Chris Coste: 12
Abraham Nunez: 7
Carlos Ruiz: 3

Let’s look at how they do by how many they create per 27 outs:

David Dellucci: 8.08
Ryan Howard: 7.59
Chase Utley: 7.32
Bobby Abreu: 7.12
Pat Burrell: 6.71
Chris Coste: 6.06
Jimmy Rollins: 4.82
David Bell: 4.60
Aaron Rowand: 4.18
Shane Victorino: 4.08
Carlos Ruiz: 1.94
Abraham Nunez: 1.45

A couple of points are in order:

-Get David Dellucci off the bench and onto the field. The man is one heck of a ballplayer and he’s doing much, much better than Shane Victorino.

-Abraham Nunez is just embarrassing himself at the plate. 1.45 Base Runs per 27 outs? That is a travesty. If the Phillies want to make him their every day third baseman in 2007, they are nuts.

-It didn’t entirely surprise me that Bobby Abreu wasn’t the Phillies leading Base Runs hitter, because I suspect Base Runs probably slants more towards power hitters than Runs Created, which takes stats like base-stealing and sacrifice hits into effect, and values walks a bit more. Still, if that is an accurate depiction of the Phillies offense, then all of the hand-holding over Bobby’s departure might indeed be much ado about nothing. Chase Utley and Ryan Howard long-ago passed him to become the Phillies top offensive forces.

-So surprise Aaron Rowand is doing so badly. He really is a major headache for this team. They need to do something about him this off-season.

Today's post was late and yesterday's was missing because I am currently experiencing problems with my home computer. Stay with me, I should be back on-line for Monday.

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