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Tuesday, September 19, 2006

Dellucci Post 

Ah, remember the heady days of August when the Phillies stunned the baseball establishment by dealing Bobby Abreu, Cory Lidle and David Bell and then proceeded to make a run on the playoffs, confounding the expectations of the media and, almost certainly, the Phillies own high command. The Phillies went 18-11 in the month of August, with some impressive victories over the Nationals, Cubs and Mets. After the Phillies elected to deal Abreu to the Yankees they also decided to sit Pat Burrell more often and rely on Shane Victorino and David Dellucci.

David Dellucci in particular had a terrific month in August, batting .314 GPA, .260 ISO with five home runs, fifteen RBIs, fifteen runs scored and eleven walks. Dellucci was a major reason why the Phillies led the National League in runs scored and most other statistical categories for the month of August.

Confused about what I’m talking about? Here are the stats I refer to defined:
Gross Productive Average (GPA): (1.8 * .OBP + .SLG) / 4 = .GPA. Invented by The Hardball Times Aaron Gleeman, GPA measures a players production by weighing his ability to get on base and hit with power. This is my preferred all-around stat.
Isolated Power (ISO): .SLG - .BA = .ISO. Measures a player’s raw power by subtracting singles from their slugging percentage.
Runs Created (RC): A stat originally created by Bill James to measure a player’s total contribution to his team’s lineup. Here is the formula: [(H + BB + HBP - CS - GIDP) times ((S * 1.125) + (D * 1.69) + (T * 3.02) + (HR * 3.73) + (.29 * (BB + HBP – IBB)) + (.492 * (SB + SF + SH)) – (.04 * K))] divided by (AB + BB + HBP + SH+ SF). If you use ESPN’s version be advised that it is pitifully is out-of-date, however. James adjusted RC after the 2004 season ended.

Dellucci has significantly slumped since then, with a .212 GPA, .116ISO with a single home run, one RBI, three runs scored and four walks. Dellucci contributed 16 Runs Created in August and three in September thus far. (Dellucci’s slump really began back on August 18th, with an 0-for-3 in a 6-4 loss against the Washington Nationals, so much of the month of August encompasses the slump.) Because of Dellucci’s slump the Phillies have dropped to seventh in runs scored for September and third in on-base percentage (down from first). These are big drop for a team that relies on its offense to win baseball games.

So what happened? First off, the Phillies have lost confidence in him and sat him too much. Yeah, yeah, he’s hurting the team with his play, but he also ignited the post-Abreu trade boom for the Phillies. He played big in some big series like the Phillies three victories back in mid-August over the Mets where he went 3-for-11 with two home runs, four RBIs and two walks. That was a big-time performance.

The Phillies need to play Dellucci more. Let him play through the slump. Another idea that I have is to work with Dellucci on retaining him for 2007. I suspect that the Phillies aren’t thinking about this – and in any case Dellucci might not figure in their plans for ’07 – but guaranteeing Dellucci that the Phillies want him to play leftfield for them next season might help relax him and give him confidence. Maybe Dellucci is thinking about making a positive impression on the free agency market and is worrying that his slump is affecting his market value. Give him a deal – he should be a cheap replacement for Pat Burrell in left – and let him play.

Update: I figured that I’d give everyone an update on some players that I’ve been following this season.

Chris Coste really slumped this month. In August he had a .313 GPA / .193 ISO. In September his numbers cratered: .163 GPA / .125 ISO. He’s struggling and is showing zero discipline at the plate: his pitches per plate appearance in September was a horrifically bad 3.03, compared with a superb 4.15 in August. Chris: BE PATIENT! Work the count, make the pitcher throw the extra pitch, and you'll get back to your September form.

Carlos Ruiz is making the most of his AB’s this month, with a .416 GPA and .533 ISO. Most of that is the fact that Ruiz hit two home runs in his eighteen plate appearances in the month, but that is still pretty good work, especially considering that before this month Ruiz had a grand total of ten plate appearances in the majors, the three games he caught for the Phillies against the Padres in July.

What a great decision it was to bring Jeff Conine to town. Forty years old and he’s hit a .279 GPA with a .143 ISO with the Phillies. He already has ten Runs Created this month! Contrast that with Abraham Nunez (see yesterday’s post). He’s most definitely not the Phillies first baseman / left fielder of the future, but he adds depth and a much-needed bat off the bench for the Phillies playoff prospects. Well done, Pat Gillick.

Wildcard Watch! … Leave it to the Phillies sweep a rival in a three game set and then lose 11-6 to the worst team in the NL. Memo to Charlie Manuel: if you want to keep your job, win the next two games, please … Anyway, the Phillies only lost a half game with the Padres moving back into the wildcard lead in their horrific loss to the Dodgers in L.A. last night. With just twelve games left in the season that margin of error is getting ever so smaller. The bad news for the Phillies is that the Padres play seven of their final thirteen games against the slumping D-backs, three against the Pittsburgh Pirates, and three against the St. Louis Cardinals. I tend to think the Padres will take at least seven of those games, maybe eight. The Phillies still have six with the Marlins, two with the Cubs, three with the Nats and a makeup with the Astros. I’d say that the Phillies will have to go 8-4 down the stretch to have a shot at the wildcard. I'd peg the magic number at 85-86 wins.

1. San Diego: 78-71
2. Philadelphia: 77-73 (1.5)
3. San Francisco: 74-75 (4.0)
4. Florida: 74-76 (4.5)
5. Cincinnati: 73-77 (5.5)
6. Atlanta: 73-77 (5.5)

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