Tuesday, October 24, 2006
Confused about what I’m talking about? Here are the stats I refer to defined:
ERA – Earned Run Average: (Earned Runs * 9) / IP = ERA
FIP – Fielding Independent Pitching: (13*HR+3*BB-2*K / IP) + League Factor Evaluates a pitching by how he would have done with an average defense behind him by keeping track of things that a pitcher can control (walks, strikeouts, home runs allowed) as opposed to things he cannot (hits allowed, runs allowed).
DER – Defense Efficiency Ratio: (Batters Faced – (Hits + Walks + Hit By Pitch + Strikeouts)) / (Batters Faced – (Home Runs, Walks + Hit By Pitch + Strikeouts)) How often fielders convert balls put into play into outs.
Hr/9 – Home Runs allowed per nine innings: (HR * 9) / IP
BB/9 – Walks per nine innings: (BB * 9) / IP
Okay, Jamie Moyer is a durable pitcher (sixth consecutive season with 200+ innings, eighth of last nine with 200+ as well), and he has a terrific attitude. He brought a culture of winning to the Phillies dugout that was sorely lacking in positives. However, I don’t think he pitched that well in 2006. Moyer went 5-2 with a 4.03 ERA with the Phillies. Yes, I am very impressed by his 1.3 BB/9 rate. However, I’d note that he also surrendered a fair number of home runs (1.49 HR/9), and his FIP ERA was sixty-three points higher than his regular ERA at 4.64 … Moyer was able to do what he did for the Phillies thanks to great fielding from the Phillies defense. Despite surrendering a high 23.1% of line-drives with balls put into play, the Phillies D converted .753 of those balls put into play into outs. A high line-drive percentage vs. a high DER. One of these two cannot stand in 2007, and I think it will be the latter. Jamie Moyer is a lot like Jon Lieber, a pitcher who I expected to thrive with the Phillies and he never did. I just don’t see Jamie Moyer as being worth the money. Especially when you have so many needs: third base, bullpen, etc.
As for the World Series, it is all tied up at one game each. While I am rooting for the Tigers, I am not rooting for Kenny Rogers, a player that I think is a jerk, and my belief in his bad character was strengthened by this dirt issue from Game two. Was Rogers cheating? I personally suspect so: how didn’t he notice dirt on his pitching hand?
The next three games are in St. Louis, which I don’t like: why does the MLB schedule game five for the other teams town? If home field advantage exists, then send the team with that advantage to its town to play game five. I think it gives the road team in the series a slight advantage playing game five in their park.
I still think the Tigers will win the series, but I am revising my prediction to six games instead of five. The key will be the Tigers pitchers and how well they shut-down the Cardinals batters. I guess we’ll see tonight.
If someone had to win last night’s Monday Night Football game, I guess it was better for the Giants to do so. They are the more beatable team, in my opinion, and it was fun to see T.O. suffer, waving his arms and sulking in frustration. I am sort of impressed by the performance of the Giants D, but then the Eagles gave them a great blueprint from a few weeks ago and they did their work against two QBs: one who has never been mobile in his entire career, and the other is a fresh-faced rookie. I expect to see Tony Romo as the ‘Boys QB for the rest of the season. I think Bledsoe’s career is finished. So the good news for the Birds is that the ‘Boys still trail them at 3-3 to the Eagles 4-3, the bad news is that the Giants are 4-2 and sit in first. Hmmm … that week two loss might just loom very, very big in the grand scheme of things at the end of the season. I guess we’ll see.
Tomorrow, Part VI of the Wiz Kids, a focus on Curt Simmons.
Previous Installments of the Wiz Kids:
Part V: Robin Roberts.
Part IV: The first half of the 1950 season.
Part III: Jim Konstanty.
Part II: Eddie Sawyer.
Part I: The Path to 1950.