Thursday, September 20, 2007
Run Differential
Just thirteen games left … Last night’s close 2-1 loss to the Cardinals will hurt the Phillies playoff chances, but not fatally undermine them. The Phillies were riding a hot streak that was due to end. Just bad luck they lost on a night where the Padres and Mets and D-Backs, because we have to keep our eye on them, all won. Hats off to Adam Wainwright, who didn’t get the win, but bamboozled the Phillies for eight innings, holding them to just four hits and four walks, while striking out seven Phillies. That was about as good a performance as you could ask for a pitcher to turn in.
The loss and the Mets / Padres / Diamondbacks victories were devastating to the Phillies playoff chances: the Phillies playoff odds dipped to 29%, down from 48% the previous day.
Meanwhile, people in Boston are evidentially freaking out about the Red Sox dwindling lead over the Yankees in the race for the A.L. East. In reality, the race is little more than a psychological contest, as the Red Sox and Yankees have 99.9% and 99.1% chances, respectively, of making the playoffs. The Blue Jays, Orioles and Devil Rays don’t have a chance at the division, so the worst that the Red Sox can do is second-place. If they fall to second, then they will compete with the Tigers for the wildcard. The Tigers stand a 0.82% chance of securing the wildcard.
Basically, there is no chance of the Red Sox missing the playoffs. This is all a psychological battle between the Red Sox and Yankees. The Yankees will be looking to secure the A.L. East for the bazillionth time – well, the tenth consecutive time – while the Red Sox want their first A.L. East title since 1995. If the Red Sox lose to the Yankees it will look bad, but realistically, it might give the Red Sox an axe to grind in the playoffs. Imagine the fury and anger they’ll unleash on the Indians or Angels in the first round of the playoffs.
Interesting fact: the run differential between the Phillies and Mets is paper-thin. The Phillies are +57 and the Mets are +55, but the Mets have the better record because they are 32-26 in games decided by two or fewer runs. The Phillies are 31-31 in those games. I don’t know if that means anything to anyone, but it is interesting information nevertheless.
I’ll post again later, if I get a chance …
The loss and the Mets / Padres / Diamondbacks victories were devastating to the Phillies playoff chances: the Phillies playoff odds dipped to 29%, down from 48% the previous day.
Meanwhile, people in Boston are evidentially freaking out about the Red Sox dwindling lead over the Yankees in the race for the A.L. East. In reality, the race is little more than a psychological contest, as the Red Sox and Yankees have 99.9% and 99.1% chances, respectively, of making the playoffs. The Blue Jays, Orioles and Devil Rays don’t have a chance at the division, so the worst that the Red Sox can do is second-place. If they fall to second, then they will compete with the Tigers for the wildcard. The Tigers stand a 0.82% chance of securing the wildcard.
Basically, there is no chance of the Red Sox missing the playoffs. This is all a psychological battle between the Red Sox and Yankees. The Yankees will be looking to secure the A.L. East for the bazillionth time – well, the tenth consecutive time – while the Red Sox want their first A.L. East title since 1995. If the Red Sox lose to the Yankees it will look bad, but realistically, it might give the Red Sox an axe to grind in the playoffs. Imagine the fury and anger they’ll unleash on the Indians or Angels in the first round of the playoffs.
Interesting fact: the run differential between the Phillies and Mets is paper-thin. The Phillies are +57 and the Mets are +55, but the Mets have the better record because they are 32-26 in games decided by two or fewer runs. The Phillies are 31-31 in those games. I don’t know if that means anything to anyone, but it is interesting information nevertheless.
I’ll post again later, if I get a chance …
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