Wednesday, May 09, 2007
First, Bourn took off for second base, beating the throw by a good margin. It was Bourn’s second steal of the season. Taschner dug in again to pitch to Helms. Then, suddenly, Bourn broke to third base and beat the throw again by a hefty margin. The Giants fans looked on with stunned amazement as Bourn stood up and brushed himself off. The cameras panned to the grins on the faces of Manager Charlie Manuel and Davey Lopes. Their gamble seemed to be paying off. Still, the weak-hitting Helms would have to get Bourn the last ninety feet home.
Could Helms hit a fly deep enough to score Bourn or even get a hit? The answer was no. Helms put the ball into play by tapping a weak grounder to the Giants Omar Vizquel at shortstop. Playing in to try and prevent Bourn from scoring, Vizquel saw Bourn breaking for home and fired the ball to Giants catcher Bengie Molina. The throw from Vizquel was right on the money and Molina did a nice job trying to shield the plate, but Bourn was one step ahead, beating the tag from Molina by a half second.
The Phillies lead was now 8-5. The ESPN crew broadcasting the game excitedly raved about Bourn's speed. The margin gave the Phillies beleaguered bullpen some room to work with as they closed out the victory. Impressively it was an explicit example of how speed produced a run. Without speed the Phillies weak-hitting 6-7-8 hitters would have squandered Burrell’s walk. Without speed the Phillies wouldn’t have scored that run.
* Specifically, when Bourn was on first with no outs, he stood a 42% chance of scoring. When Rowand flied out, that dropped to 27%. The steal of second improved that to 41%. When Bourn stole third, the odds swung in his favor, with a 66% chance of scoring. (See, Chapter 4.2, "When Is One Run Worth More Than Two?", Baseball Between the Numbers, page 129.)
The issue of the stolen base lies at the heart of both the sabremetric and small-ball ideologies. To the small-ballers, the stolen base is a vital weapon, a tool that turns a meaningless single into a double, that puts a runner in scoring position. Stolen bases are one way that you “manufacture” runs in small ball and goes hand-in-hand with bunting and the rest of it. To the sabremetricians, the stolen base is an irritating piece of conventional wisdom that the small-ballers cling to against precious little evidence it is useful. Writes James Click in Chapter 4.1 of Baseball Between the Numbers:
“The stolen base may be exciting, but even the best base-stealers in the game are producing only marginal gains for their teams in the recent offensively-dominated era … Stolen-base totals still garner a lot of attention, as teams like to point out how they play ‘Smallball’ or emphasize the running game. But very little attention is paid to the number of times those same runners are thrown out and the damage those outs can do … The stolen base is a useful weapon but also an overrated one.”
(See, “What if Rickey Henderson Had Pete Incaviglia’s Legs?”, page 115.) In sum, the argument against the stolen base is that teams tend to risk having runners gunned down and surrender outs when they are caught stealing. Teams have to be successful about 75% of the time in order to make the stolen base worth it.
Scenario #1: the team sends the runner from first to second base. What is the benefit? Teams with a runner on first with no outs can expect to score 0.9259 runs an inning. If the runner gets to second base, that increases to 1.1596 runs, or an increase of 0.2337 runs. Roughly +25%.
Scenario #2: the team sends the runner from first to second and he is caught. So the team goes from .9259 runs per inning to 0.2866. That is a 70% drop! When teams are playing for one run to win a game the stolen base is a big risk: a runner on first with no outs stands a 42% chance of scoring. Second base and no outs? 63%. Getting caught going from first to second? The scoring expectations drops to a mere 17%. It is not a winning strategy if you are playing for a run, and it is not a winning strategy to try and put runs up on the board.
However, it is a strategy that I predict we will see a lot more of in the coming days. Slugging percentages and home runs have declined somewhat precipitously this season and the lousy April weather is only partly to blame for it. The renewed focus on steroids by the media and the baseball establishment has had some effect, I believe. The silver age of the power offense, of the home run, is coming to an end. The last time that baseball saw an era dominated as this one has been by teams built around the long ball was the 1950s, the golden ages of the game. However the dominance of the home run faded as teams in the '50s began to emphasize the bunt and stolen base and moved away from home runs. Historian Bill James writes about baseball in the 1960’s: “The use of speed as an offensive weapon, which had atrophied for forty years, began to re-emerge late in the fifties, and by 1962 was a headline story.” (The Bill James Historical Abstract, page 249.) There are a number of reasons for this, like shifts in thinking by leading teams, the success the Go-Go Sox (the 1959 Chicago White Sox) had in reaching the World Series, the shift by some teams from hitters parks like Ebbets Field to the L.A. Coloseum, changes in personel and so on. By the 1960's, when the rules changed to favor pitchers, baseball was already moving towards a speed, defense and pitching style. I think, with the decline of the home run this season, you are going to see teams emphasize speed, defense and pitching more in the future. We are not entering a new dark age for offense, but we are seeing shifts in the game. As one Army officer remarked to author Robert Kaplan: "Attrition of the same adds up to big change." The template for the future team won't be the Oakland A's, but the Anaheim Angels.
So in all of this futurism we ought to talk about presentism. What do we know about the Phillies attitude towards stolen base this season? Well, they rank second in the N.L. in stolen bases attempted with 38, one behind the Mets. This is an increase over seasons past. And Davey Lopes, an enthusiastic proponent of the stolen base, is now an assistant coach.
In 2006 the Phillies ranked eighth in steals attempted with 117. The Nationals led the N.L. with 185 steals attempted, with the Mets right behind at 181. With the Phillies finding success hitting lots and lots of home runs, the team de-emphasized the running game last season. Here is how often the Phillies have been running:
Stolen Bases Attempted:
Phillies / N.L. Average
2007: 38 / 24*
2006: 117 / 133
2005: 143 / 119
2004: 127 / 117
* Thru Monday.
Last year was a bit of an abnormality for the team, how little it ran. I suspect that was largely due to the departure of Bobby Abreu, who had stolen twenty bases in twenty-four attempts in 2006, and left for the Yankees in late July. This year the Phillies seem more interested to trying to run. They have a terrific new weapon to do it: Shane Victorino. The talented Hawaiian attempted seven steals in 2006 and was caught three times. This season Victorino is running a lot more: thirteen steals in sixteen tries, impressive given that he's been on first base just 41 times and second 7.
Right behind him is Jimmy Rollins with eight steals in nine tries. J.Roll, with his powerful bat, is the best lead-off hitter in the N.L. right now. Who else would have eight stolen bases, five triples and nine home runs? Rollins has traditionally been a quick player on the base-paths:
Steals / Caught Stealing / Success %
2001: 46* / 8 / 85%
2002: 31 / 13 / 70%
2003: 20 / 12 / 63%
2004: 30 / 9 / 77%
2005: 41 / 6 / 87%
2006: 36 / 4 / 90%
* Led N.L.
This season is no exception. If he keeps up his current pace, J.Roll will steal 41-42 bases this season.
After J.Roll comes Bourn, who is three-for-three, and Chase Utley, who is three-for-four, and Aaron Rowand, at two-for-two. J.Roll, Victorino and Bourn are the Phillies speedsters. These guys are going to test the opposing defenses with their legs a lot this season. Oh, and in the minors they have two guys named Chris Roberson and Greg Golson who have some wheels.
So those are my thoughts on the importance the Phillies, and the rest of baseball, will be placing on the stolen base this season and in the future. With Ryan Howard in and out of the lineup, look for the Phillies to attempt to manufacture runs with the running game much, much more.
http://www.ticketwood.com/mlb/Chicago-WhiteSox-Tickets/index.php. Well I hope this will be helpful for you guys. Go Go white sox. Keep me updated Great blog!!!
I'm sure you’ve read these letters asking you to send $1 to 6 different addresses. Putting your home address on the internet can be risky, but through paypal all you have to provide is your email address. It’s safe and easy just go to www.paypal.com and set up your account!!!! I am not a gullible person and have never trusted things like this, but I gave it a try, hey its only $6, I figured at least 6 people would respond out of the millions of people that use the internet. You should give it a try too! You have nothing to lose, and thousands to gain! Read on for the letter that I found ...
$$ HOW TO TURN $6 INTO $6,000+!!! THIS REALLY CAN MAKE YOU EASY MONEY!! IT WORKS!!! BUT YOU HAVE TO FOLLOW IT TO THE LETTER FOR IT TO WORK!!!! $$
A little while back, I was browsing through newsgroup, just like you are now and came across an article similar to this that said you could make thousands dollars within weeks with only an initial investment of $6.00! So I thought, "Yeah, right, this must be a scam", but like most of us, I was curious, so I kept reading. Anyway, it said that you send $1.00 though paypal to each of the emails stated in the article. You then place your own email address in the bottom of the list at #6, and post the article in at least 200 news groups. (There are thousands) No catch that was it. So after thinking it over, and talking to few people first, I thought about trying it. I figured what have I got to lose except $6.00, right? Like most of us I was a little skeptical and a little worried about the legal aspects of it. It follows the same regulations as the "mailed chain letters, which according to the U.S. Post Office (1-800-725-2161) is indeed legal! Then I invested the measly $6.00. Well GUESS WHAT!!? Within 7 days, I started getting money in my paypal account! I was shocked! I figured it would end soon, but the money just kept coming in. In my first week, I made about $20.00. By the end second week I had made a total over $1,200.00!!! In the third week I had over $10,000.00 and it's still growing. This is now my fourth week and I have made a total of just over $36,000.00 and it's still coming in rapidly. It's Certainly worth $6.00. I have spent more than that on the lottery!! Let me tell you how this works and most importantly, why it works? Also, make sure you print a copy of this article NOW, so you can get the information off of it as you need it.
$$ REQUIREMENTS: You must have a verified paypal account. If you do not have an account you can go to www.paypal.com and follow the instructions to set up a free account. In order to place the initial $6 into your account, you will have to verify your bank account with paypal (which may take a few days). Paypal is 100% secure and is used by millions of people world wide.
STEP 1: Send, through paypal, $1.00 to each email on the below list. Make the subject of the payment "Email List" and in the comments, write "PLEASE PUT ME ON YOUR EMAIL LIST." What you are doing is creating a service by this and best of all you are not giving your address to anyone you do not know ... THIS IS ABSOLUTELY LEGAL! The email list:
STEP 2: Now take the #1 email off the list that you see above, move the other addresses up (6 becomes 5, 5 becomes 4, etc) and add YOUR email address (the one used on the paypal account) as number 6 on the list.
STEP 3: Change anything you need to, but try to keep this article as close to original as possible. Now, post your amended article to at least 200 newsgroups, message board. (I think there are close to 32,000 groups) All you need is 200, but remember, the more you post, the more money you make - as well as everyone else on the list!
$$ DIRECTIONS $$ HOW TO POST TO NEWSGROUPS + MESSAGE BOARDS $$
Step #1) You do not need to re-type this entire letter to do your own posting. Simply put your CURSOR at the beginning of this letter and drag your CURSOR to the bottom of this document, and select 'copy' from the edit menu. This will copy the entire letter into the computer memory.
Step #2) Open a blank 'notepad' file and place your cursor at the top of the blank page. From the 'edit' menu select 'paste'. This will paste a copy of the letter into notepad so that you can add your name to the list.
Steps #3) save your new notepad file as a .txt file. If you want to do your postings in different sittings, you'll always have this file to go back to.
Step #4) Use Netscape or Internet Explorer and try searching for various newsgroups, on-line forums, message boards, bulletin boards, chat sites, discussions, discussion groups, online communities, etc. For example: you log on to any search engine like yahoo.com, google.com, altavista.com, excite.com then you search with subject like ?millionaire message board? or ?money making message board? or ?employment message board? or ?money making discussions? or ?money making forum? or ?business message board? etc. You will find thousands & thousands of message boards. Click them one by one then you will find the option to post a new message.
Step #5) Visit these message boards and post this article as a new message by highlighting the text of this letter and selecting paste from the Edit menu. Fill in the Subject, this will be the header that everyone sees as they scroll thru the list of postings in a particular group, click the post message button. You're done with your first one! Congratulations? THAT'S IT!! All you have to do is jump to different newsgroups and post away, after you get the hang of it, it will take about 30 seconds for each newsgroup!
$$ REMEMBER, THE MORE NEWSGROUPS AND/OR MESSAGE BOARDS YOU POST IN, THE MORE MONEY YOU WILL MAKE!! BUT YOU HAVE TO POST A MINIMUM OF 200** That's it! You will begin receiving money within days! $$
$$ JUST MAKE SURE THE EMAIL YOU SUPPY IS EXACTLY AS IT APPEARS ON PAYPAL. $$ Now the WHY part: Out of 200 postings, say I receive only 5 replies (a very low example). So then I Made $5.00 with my name at #6 on the letter. Now, each of the 5 persons who just sent me $1.00 make the MINIMUM 200 postings, each with my name at #5 and only 5 persons respond to each of the original 5, that is another $25.00 for me, now those 25 each make 200 MINIMUM posts with my name at #4 and only 5 replies each, I will bring in an additional $125.00! Now, those 125 persons turn around and post the MINIMUM 200 with my name at #3 and only receive 5 replies each, I will make an additional $625.00! OK, now here is the fun part, each of those 625 persons post a MINIMUM 200 letters with my name at #2 and they only receive 5 replies that just made me $3,125.00!!! Those 3,125 persons will all deliver this message to 200 newsgroups with my name at #1 and if still 5 persons per 200 newsgroups react I will receive $15,625.00! With an original investment of only $6.00!
A - M - A - Z - I - N - G - $$
$$ When your name is no longer on the list, you just take latest posting in the newsgroups, and send out another $6.00 to names on the list, putting your name at number 6 again. And start posting again. The thing to remember is, do you realize that thousands of people all over the world are joining the internet and reading these articles everyday, JUST LIKE YOU are now!! So can you afford $6?? And see if it really works?? I think so? People have said, what if the plan is played out and no one sends you the money? So what are the chances of that happening when there are tons of new honest users and new honest people who are joining the internet and newsgroups everyday and are willing to give it a try? Estimates are at 20,000 to 50,000 new users, every day, with thousands of those joining the actual Internet.
Remember, play FAIRLY and HONESTLY and this will work. Seriously, most people think this is a scam, but you actually do get thousands of dollars out of it, it is NOT another crazy stupid scam, if people follow through with sending out $6, it works!!!!!
$$ REMEMBER, IT IS 100% LEGAL! DON'T PASS THIS UP! $$
Look at what PayPal had to say about it! (or ask them for yourself)
Thank you for contacting PayPal. We apologize for the delay in responding to your service request.
It has come to our attention that there is a PayPal scheme floating around at the moment you may have heard or seen the $5 scheme. You may have even taken part in it well we have been asked a lot of questions about this scheme the answer is yes it does work and yes it is safe to use providing you follow the rules it is legal and has made a big hit on the internet this year.
Thank you for using PayPal! Sincerely, PayPal Community Support.
There's no use trying to cheat for only $6.00 ***
$$ Have fun! $$
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